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XPO: AI freight planning cut empty miles 10%; no figure since 2025

XPO said in 2025 that AI load planning cut empty truck miles 10%. It has credited AI every quarter since without a number: ask for miles, not margin.

WrenAI editor
· 3 min read
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At a glance

Company
XPO · Logistics and transport · 5,000+ employees
Team and use case
Supply chain and procurement · Route and load planning
Tools
Proprietary linehaul planning models (built in-house), XPO Smart labour planning (built in-house)
Stage
Scaled across teams, since 2025
Results
  • Miles driven between terminals (stated 31 July 2025): Down 3% (no baseline period given)
  • Empty miles (stated 31 July 2025): Down 10% (no baseline period given)
  • Freight diversions (stated 31 July 2025; term not defined): Down more than 80%
  • Share of linehaul miles bought from outside carriers: 14.7% (2024) → 5.6% (third quarter of 2026)
Cost
Not disclosed. Capital spending is targeted at 8% to 12% of revenue through 2027; the technology share is not stated.
People
Managers use the labour-planning software to make staffing decisions; who reviews the trailer-loading instructions is not stated. No North American job cuts are attributed to AI. XPO estimates it can take a low- to mid-single-digit percentage rise in shipments without adding drivers or workers.
Evidence
Company claim, no method

The company states a result without saying how it was measured.

What this leaves out: The mileage results are management statements on a July 2025 earnings call, reported by FreightWaves, with no baseline period or method and no update since. The filed fall in outsourced miles also reflects moving runs onto XPO's own trucks; the filings do not isolate the software's effect.

XPO, a US trucking company that carries pallet-sized shipments from many customers on shared trailers, says software that plans which trailers run between its terminals cut the miles those trucks drive by 3%, the miles they drive empty by 10% and what it calls freight diversions by more than 80%. Management gave the figures on its earnings call on 31 July 2025, [FreightWaves reported](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/xpo-sees-massive-runway-to-push-margins-higher). In the reports and filings I read from the five quarters since, XPO credits AI each time and gives no new number.

The [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000016/xpo-20251231.htm) filed on 5 February 2026 says that in 2025 XPO "developed new linehaul models that use artificial intelligence" (linehaul is the terminal-to-terminal leg), piloted new routing for local pickups and deliveries, and that managers "used AI-based labor planning algorithms to improve productivity". XPO calls the technology proprietary; no supplier is named. The [quarterly report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000092/xpo-20260930.htm) of 29 October 2026 says the models take shipment volume, capacity and dimensions and "generate instructions to maximize trailer utilization".

What the filings measure

  • Outside carriers drove 5.6% of XPO's linehaul miles in the third quarter of 2026, against 6.7% in 2025, 14.7% in 2024 and 25.2% in 2020, according to the [investor presentation](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926119829/tm2628363d2_ex99-1.htm) filed on 29 October 2026.
  • XPO "lowered our cost of third-party purchased transportation by over 50%" in 2025 compared with 2024, the annual report says.
  • XPO moved linehaul freight an average of 2.6 million miles a day in the 12 months to 30 September 2026, per the quarterly report. Wren's arithmetic: 3% of that is 78,000 miles a day (2.6 million × 0.03), if the July 2025 rate still holds, which XPO has not said.

In the [results release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000110465926119828/tm2628363d1_ex99-1.htm) of 29 October 2026, chief executive Mario Harik said: "on the cost side, we're operating more efficiently by expanding the use of AI across our network." The release reports a 260 basis-point improvement (2.6 percentage points) in the trucking unit's adjusted operating ratio, which is costs as a share of revenue. It does not say how much of that came from AI.

The catch: several things changed at once

Over the same period XPO moved linehaul runs from outside carriers onto its own trucks, adding more than 6,000 tractors since late 2021, cut its average tractor age from 5.9 years at the end of 2022 to 3.7 at the end of 2025, opened terminals and raised prices. The quarterly report's own explanation of the third quarter does not mention AI: company-wide, purchased transportation fell to 19.0% of revenue from 20.1% because revenue grew faster, with insourcing partly offsetting higher carrier prices. FreightWaves's [report of the October 2026 call](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/xpos-pricing-operating-initiatives-drive-q3-beat) credits "new locations, along with AI-led efficiency initiatives" for fewer empty miles, more stops per hour and less freight handling, with no figures. An [earlier report](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/xpo-defies-weak-ltl-demand-with-margin-gains), from October 2025, likewise gave none.

The cost of building the models is not disclosed. The presentation gives a capital spending target of 8% to 12% of revenue through 2027 and does not split out technology.

The people

About 63% of XPO's roughly 37,000 employees at the end of 2025 were drivers and dockworkers, the annual report says. It describes the labour software as there "to aid our managers in workflow decision-making"; who reviews the trailer-loading instructions is not stated. No filing I read attributes job cuts in North America to AI. FreightWaves reports XPO's estimate that it could take a low- to mid-single-digit percentage increase in shipments without adding drivers or workers.

What to do if you run transport or logistics

  • Before a planning tool goes in, record three numbers per lane for a full quarter: total miles, empty miles, and the share of miles bought from outside carriers. XPO's 3% and 10% came with no baseline period.
  • Ask the vendor, or your own analyst, for the saving in miles on the lanes the tool plans. A margin figure mixes in price rises, new trucks and new sites, as XPO's does.
  • Keep insourcing and software as separate lines in the business case. XPO's filings can show what bringing miles in-house did (14.7% outsourced to 5.6%); they cannot show what the software did.
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Forward this

XPO said in July 2025 that AI planning cut the miles its trucks run between terminals by 3% and empty miles by 10%, as reported by FreightWaves, and has credited AI for lower costs since without publishing a new figure. Before a planning tool goes into our network, we should record miles, empty miles and outsourced miles per lane, so its saving can be measured apart from fleet, site and price changes.

Questions to ask

  1. What were total and empty miles on the lanes the tool plans in the quarter before it went live, and in the same quarter a year later?
  2. How much of the fall in outside-carrier miles came from the software and how much from adding your own trucks and drivers?
  3. Who checks a load plan before trailers are loaded, and how often do dock managers override it?
  4. What did the models cost to build and run, and when did the miles saved pay that back?
  5. Did on-time delivery and damage claims hold on the lanes where miles fell?

The arithmetic

Miles saved per day = miles your trucks run between sites per day × the share the planning tool removes. Saving = miles saved per day × your cost per mile × operating days.

XPO: 2.6 million linehaul miles a day × 3% = 78,000 miles a day. XPO did not give its cost per mile, the period the 3% was measured over, or whether the rate still holds in 2026.

Questions this article answers

What results has XPO reported from AI in its trucking network?

XPO said on its 31 July 2025 earnings call that an AI planning model cut linehaul miles by 3%, empty miles by 10% and freight diversions by more than 80%, FreightWaves reported. It has not published an updated figure since.

How much of XPO's margin improvement comes from AI?

XPO does not say. Its October 2026 results release reports a 260 basis-point improvement in the trucking unit's adjusted operating ratio and credits wider use of AI on the cost side, alongside pricing, insourcing and volume.

Has XPO cut jobs because of AI?

No filing reviewed attributes North American job cuts to AI. FreightWaves reported in October 2026 that XPO estimates it could handle a low- to mid-single-digit percentage rise in shipments without adding drivers or workers.

Does XPO buy its AI planning software from a vendor?

XPO's filings call the technology proprietary and name no supplier. The cost of building it is not disclosed.

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